Keith Hernandez……Has his career been given it’s
proper place in Baseball History ?
When a major league ballplayer’s career (10 to 12 years or more or, as in this web-site, 5,000 or more at bats) comes to an end, the inevitable question comes up… Was it a Hall of Fame career? Many baseball people (players, coaches, managers, sports writers, radio talk show hosts and educated fans) feel the player falls into two categories: he either IS a Hall of Famer or he is NOT a Hall of Famer. At www.baseballsgreatesthitters.com we feel strongly about a third category “The Border-line Player.” Examining the history of the Hall of Fame, we feel there have been a number of players who have fallen in this category. Some of these great players slip in to the Hall of Fame, while others fall short.
We would like to take a close look at the career of Keith Hernandez, who we feel should be considered one of those “Border-line Players.” Even though our web-site deals strictly with the rating of great hitters, it is no secret that Keith Hernandez is considered by most
baseball people to be the greatest defensive first baseman in the history of baseball. As we examine his career more closely, the fact that the highest Hall of Fame vote total he ever received was 10.8% in 1998 is an “insult” to a great career, since he is notably the best defensive first baseman in 100 years. Many baseball people feel that his home run numbers do not measure up with other great hitting Hall of Fame first basemen.
Let’s examine the careers of four of the top players of era 6, Keith Hernandez, Don Mattingly, Ryne Sandberg and Kirby Puckett.We do realize the offensive expectations vary at different positions. We are not trying to determine which of the four players should be hall of famers or who should not, but after analyzing their careers, we feel that the 10.8% support Keith Hernandez did receive does not represent his career accomplishments. We do realize his home run numbers are a bit low for a first baseman while the power numbers for Ryne Sandberg are high for second baseman, but how do the power numbers and run production of Kirby Puckett measure up to the power numbers of Mantle, Mays, DiMaggio, Snider and other Hall of Fame centerfielders as well as other home run hitting outfielders ?
Keith Hernandez – 3.582 rating #5 era 6 first baseman #20 hitter of his era #189 all-time
Ryne Sandberg – 3.596 rating #2 era 6 second baseman #19 hitter of his era #179 all-time
Kirby Puckett – 3.632 rating #8 era 6 outfielder #17 hitter of his era #163 all-time
Don Mattingly – 3.657 rating #3 era 6 first baseman #13 hitter of his era #150 all-time.
Keith Hernandez | Kirby Puckett | Ryne Sandberg | Don Mattingly | |
At Bats | 7,370 | 7,244 | 8,385 | 7,003 |
Runs | 1,124 | 1,071 | 1,318 | 1,007 |
Hits | 2,182 | 2,304 | 2,386 | 2,153 |
Doubles | 426 | 414 | 403 | 442 |
Triples | 60 | 57 | 76 | 20 |
Home Runs | 162 | 207 | 282 | 222 |
R.B.I.’s | 1,071 | 1,085 | 1,061 | 1,099 |
Stolen Bases | 98 | 134 | 344 | 14 |
Walks | 1,070 | 450 | 761 | 588 |
Strike Outs | 1,012 | 965 | 1,260 | 444 |
Batting Ave. | .296 | .318 | .285 | .307 |
On Base % | .384 | .360 | .344 | .358 |
Slugging % | .436 | .477 | .452 | .471 |
M.V.P.’s | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Gold Gloves | 11 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
Hall of Fame Votes | 1996 – 5.1% | 2001 – 82.1% | 2003 – 49.2% | 2001 – 28.2% |
1997 – 9.5% | First Ballot | 2004 – 61.1% | 2002 – 20.3% | |
1998 – 10.8% | 2005 – 76.2% | 2003 – 13.7% | ||
1999 – 6.8% | 2004 – 12.8% | |||
2000 – 10.4% | 2005 – 11.4% | |||
2001 – 8.0% | 2006 – 12.3% | |||
2002 – 6.1% | 2007 – 9.9% | |||
2003 – 6.0% | 2008 – 15.8% | |||
2004 – 4.3% | 2009 – 11.9% | |||
2010 – 16.1% |
The players listed below are perhaps the greatest defensive players at there positions. Both Brooks Robinson and Ozzie Smith are both first ballot hall of famers, after carefully examining their career statistics, it is quite obvious it was there dominant defensive skills that gave them entry into the hall of fame.
When we look back at the career of Keith Hernandez, his defensive dominance of first base is comparable to that of Brooks Robinson at third base as well as Ozzie Smith as short-stop.
As an offensive player, according our rating system, he is a well above average hitter. When evaluating the careers of these three great players, of which two are first ballot hall of famers, does a 10.8% hall of fame vote properly sum up the career accomplishments of Keith Hernandez ?
KEITH HERNANDEZ – Greatest defensive First Baseman
BROOKS ROBINSON – Greatest defensive Third Baseman
OZZIE SMITH – Greatest defensive Short- Stop
KEITH HERNANDEZ – 3.582 Rating #5 ERA 6 First baseman #20 Hitter of his era #196 all-time
BROOKS ROBINSON – 3.585 Rating #3 ERA 4 Third baseman #27 Hitter of his era #195 all-time
OZZIE SMITH – 3.337 Rating #3 ERA 6 Short-Stop #43 Hitter of his era #317 all-time
Keith Hernandez | Brooks Robinson | Ozzie Smith | |
At Bats | 7,370 | 10,654 | 9,396 |
Runs | 1,124 | 1,232 | 1,257 |
Hits | 2,182 | 2,848 | 2,460 |
Doubles | 426 | 482 | 402 |
Triples | 60 | 68 | 69 |
Home Runs | 162 | 268 | 28 |
R.B.I.’s | 1,071 | 1,357 | 793 |
Stolen Bases | 98 | 28 | 580 |
Walks | 1,070 | 860 | 1,072 |
Strike Outs | 1,012 | 990 | 589 |
Batting Ave. | .296 | .267 | .262 |
On Base % | .384 | .322 | .337 |
Slugging % | .436 | .401 | .328 |
M.V.P.’s | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Gold Gloves | 11 | 16 | 13 |
Hall of Fame Votes | 1996 – 5.1% | 1983 – 92% | 2002 – 91.7% |
1997 – 9.5% | First Ballot | First Ballot | |
1998 – 10.8% | |||
1999 – 6.8% | |||
2000 – 10.4% | |||
2001 – 8.0% | |||
2002 – 6.1% | |||
2003 – 6.0% | |||
2004 – 4.3% |
5 Responses
The problem with Keith Hernandez isn’t when he played. It’s when he retired. 1990. By 1995 Keith’s single season high in HR (18) was a good month for Sammy Sosa and the steroid era. By the time Keith was eligible we had lost perspective on what it meant to play in the late 70’s and 80’s.
There was a debate and it goes on to this day and it’s insane. The debate is, is Jim Rice a HOFer. Of course he is. He was one of the three most dominate hitters in the league for a decade. End of discussion. But it took what 15 years to get Rice in the HOF.
If it took that long to get Jim Rice into the HOF what chance did Keith Hernandez ever have? None. You’re right. 10.8% is a slap in the face. I don’t know that Keith merits being in the HOF. Yeah he had 11 GG. That’s impressive, but to compare him with Ozzie and Brooks. It’s a bit of a stretch. Keith played a position where offense is primary and defense secondary. Like have a quarterback who can run real well. It’s nice.
Even your own web-sites statistics don’t have him as an offensive force. Murray, Clark, and Mattingly all rank ahead of him. Keith’s numbers get lumped in with Cecil Cooper, Bill Buckner, Kent Hrbek. All very fine all-star caliber players. None of them a HOFer.
And remember Kirby’s career was but short. He still had some hits left in that bat
Very good points, appreciate the feedback,
Thank you, Joe Angelni
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